نقطه سربه‌سر تبلیغات

“This campaign had ROAS of three” still does not say profit or loss. Advertising pays for itself when cost per order is less than the profit that order generates before ads—and that profit is contribution margin, not selling price.

This tool uses average order value and contribution margin to compute campaign red lines: maximum affordable cost per order (CPO) and per new customer (CAC), breakeven ROAS, maximum cost per click at your conversion rate, and how many orders spend the budget at breakeven. If you also enter actual current campaign cost, you see its profit or loss. Repeat purchase by new customers is entered only as a hypothesis of your choice.

• Contribution profit per order (before ads) = average order value × contribution margin. If you give an amount in advanced settings instead of a percentage, that amount is used.
• Maximum affordable cost per order (CPO) = contribution profit per order. That means if you spend more than this on ads to win an order, that order loses money.
• Maximum cost to acquire each new customer (CAC) = max CPO ÷ share of new-customer orders. Assumption: the whole budget goes to acquiring new customers, and returning customers' orders in the same campaign are also attributed to that ad. If you do not give the new-customer share, max CAC equals max CPO and the page says so.
• ROAS = revenue (order value) ÷ ad spend. Breakeven ROAS = average order value ÷ contribution profit per order, i.e. 1 ÷ margin. This figure is a floor, not a target: at breakeven ROAS, ads only recover their own cost and no profit remains.
• Maximum cost per click (CPC) = max CPO × conversion rate. Only when you have given a conversion rate; the conversion rate is on the same unit you pay for (click or visit).
• Orders needed to spend the budget at breakeven = budget ÷ max CPO. Clicks needed = orders needed ÷ conversion rate. Campaign revenue at breakeven = budget × breakeven ROAS.
• Profit or loss at actual cost per order (actual CPO): each order = contribution profit − actual CPO; whole campaign = that × (budget ÷ actual CPO).
• The sensitivity table varies margin by ±5 percentage points (steps of 2.5) and conversion rate by ±30% relative (steps of 15) and shows max CPC in each combination; without a conversion rate, only max CPO by margin.
• Zero or negative margin: there is no break-even point; you see a warning instead of a figure. No division by zero is performed.
• Customer lifetime value is not assumed without valid data. If you turn on "repeat purchase assumption", repeat value = extra orders per new customer × contribution profit per repeat order is added to max CAC (and to max CPO, in proportion to the new-customer share) — in a separate section labelled "hypothesis"; the main figures do not change.
• Rounding (half up): amounts with no decimals, percentages and order/click counts with one decimal, ROAS with two. Order and click counts in the top summary are rounded up so the budget is fully spent; exact values are in the definitions table. The Excel file uses full formulas without rounding.

• None of these figures is net profit. Ad breakeven means the ads pay for themselves; fixed costs (rent, salaries, warehouse, …) are still uncovered. ROAS is not profit either: it is revenue over ad spend.
• Do not set breakeven ROAS as your campaign target; the target should be high enough to cover a share of fixed costs and profit too.
• Contribution margin must truly be after cost of goods, shipping, packaging, fees and returns. If you enter gross margin (only after cost of goods), the red lines become optimistic. The "true order profit" tool gives the right figure.
• The tool attributes all campaign orders to that ad. Orders that would have come without ads (brand search, regular customers) are not separated; the true ad effect is usually lower than the platform report figure.
• Customer lifetime value is not assumed without valid data. The "repeat purchase" section is only a hypothesis you state; until you have data on actual new-customer behavior (for example from RFM analysis), base decisions on the primary figures.
• Conversion rate and new-customer share should come from your own data; example figures are hypothetical.
• This tool is a calculator, not advice: no figure recommends budget, investment, or ad channel choice.