اندازهٔ بازار استانی

“How big is our market?” is usually answered with a round number nobody can source. This tool builds that number, but keeps every part separate: what is data and what is your assumption.

The site supplies each province's population and the national population estimate. You enter income decile, household size, penetration rate and annual spend — and the result prints all these assumptions next to the figure so you can debate them.

• Population of each province = that province’s share of national population × national population estimate. Shares come from this site’s provincial breakdown and the national estimate from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0).
• Why share and not the raw province figure: the sum of provincial breakdown figures is less than today's national population estimate, because that breakdown belongs to an older period. Each province's share is more stable than its absolute figure, so the tool works on shares.
• Household count = provincial population ÷ household size. The atlas has people, not households.
• Target households = household count × selected deciles’ share. Each decile is one-tenth of households—this is decile arithmetic, not a claim about Iran.
• Market size = target households × penetration rate × annual spend per household × decile spending factor.
• Two sensitivity tables: one shows how the figure changes when you pick more or fewer income deciles, the other with the spend factor — because those two assumptions drive most of the result.

• This is an estimate, not official statistics. No agency published this figure; you supplied the assumptions and the tool multiplied.
• Decile income data is not available on this site: the Statistical Centre of Iran portal's terms make redistribution and automated fetch subject to written permission. So "how many households" comes from the decile definition and "how much spend" comes from you — and no income figure is attributed to you.
• Income distribution differs by province; this tool assumes the same decile shares in all selected provinces. If Tehran differs from Sistan and Baluchestan, calculate provinces separately.
• The output is "potential market", not forecast sales: competition, distribution, brand strength and price elasticity are not in it.
• This tool is a calculator, not advice; no figure is investment advice.