Does search for “buy gold” move with gold returns? — weak
Does search for “buy gold” move with gold returns? — Daily brief. weak
- Correlation at best lag
- r = 0.40
- Optimal lag
- 0 روز معاملاتی (Simultaneous)
- Simultaneous (Pearson / Spearman)
- 0.40 / 0.34
- Observations
- n = 76 · 8 Aug – 7 Nov
- p · padj (217 Tests: all pairs × lags)
- 0.0003 · 0.0722
- Out-of-sample (final 40%)
- Lag 0 · r = 0.15 · Direction accuracy 50٪ (n=30) · Indistinguishable from a coin flip (p = 0.572)
Two series overlaid at the best lag
Correlation at each lag
Positive lag means the first series leads; negative means the second leads. The dashed line is an approximate 5% significance threshold for this n.
Rolling correlation
12-week (or 30-day) window. A relationship that only appears in a short span is not a relationship.
What does this mean?
همبستگی متوسط (r = 0.4) همزمان — وقتی اولی بالای روال خودش بوده، دومی بیشتر وقت‌ها بالا رفته. روی ۴۰٪ انتهایی داده که در انتخاب تأخیر نقشی نداشت، جهتِ تغییر سری دوم در 50٪ موارد (n=30) با انحراف سری اول هم‌خوان بود — از سکه قابل تشخیص نیست. این رابطه به‌تنهایی معنادار است اما پس از تصحیح برای همه جفت‌ها و تأخیرهای آزموده‌شده از حد نمی‌گذرد؛ می‌تواند اتفاقی باشد. همبستگی، علت نیست.
Correlation is co-movement, not cause; p is Bonferroni-corrected for 217 tests (all pairs × all searched lags); optimal lag is chosen on the first 60% and judged on the final 40%, with direction accuracy tested binomial vs. a coin flip. For level targets (premium, volatility), direction of change is scored. Search series are relative and rescaled on every fetch. Methodology